Market & Supply Watch - April 2014

The EBV Analysis of the Market Situation

The euro zone is growing as a total for the first time since a couple of years. While GDP growth was minus 0.4% in 2013, the prediction is that the growth rate will be 1% in 2014. Ireland, Portugal and Spain will need no further loans from the ECB (European Central Bank) and made huge progress with their reforms. Germany is supposed to grow 1.7% in 2014 (0.4% in 2013), USA 2,8% (1.8% in 2013) and China 7.5% (7.75% in 2013). The inflation worldwide from today’s perspective will grow 0.5% worldwide in 2014. Based on better perspectives of GDP growth rate and increasing inflation, there is a likelihood, that we will see moderate interest increases in 2014. The FED already announced, that they will stop the buybacks of government bonds, house prices in the US are on the way up and consumers also reduced their loans. All in all, in principal, there are some good indicators for the next couple of quarters. However, the major headache at the moment is what will happen due to the Crimean/Ukraine crises?

Source: Commerzbank AG - Economic Research

General Lead Time Trend

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