Market & Supply Watch - August 2014

The EBV Analysis of the Market Situation

The global economy outlook is cautiously optimistic and appears to be on a sustainable growth rate, which will lead to a 3.8% GDP growth rate from today’s perspective. The purchasing manager index is underlying this trend: while the PMI for the euro zone was 53 for March (unexpectedly good); France was at 52 (a 33-month high) and the US increased to 54 (from 51 in January). Whenever the PMI Index is above 50, this is a clear indicator for growth. The inventory levels for electronics/semiconductors have been stable for the last 6 months (in average 50 days), which is also positive. Henderson is predicting an 8% growth for semiconductors in 2014 (after 4.5% in 2013) and the monthly revenues since the beginning of the year are confirming the trend. The equipment manufacturers are confirming the positive outlook. Their billings for the 1st quarter 2014 have been 31% higher, compared to the same timeframe one year ago.

Source: Commerzbank AG - Economic Research

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